India will surpass China as world’s most populous country, UN says

India is set to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation, with almost 3 million more people by the middle of this year, data released by the United Nations on Wednesday showed.

Based on the projections, India’s population by mid-year will reach 1.4286 billion, compared to China’s 1.4257 billion – 2.9 million fewer – according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) “State of World Population Report” for 2023.

But the UN has been unable to determine a date this shift will take place, due to “uncertainty” about the data coming from China and India.

India carries out a census once every 10 years, but the last one – which was due to be held in 2021 – was delayed during the pandemic. The country’s most recent official data dates to 2011.

By mid-year, the global population is estimated to hit 8.045 billion, the UN report said.

And by 2050, eight countries will account for half the projected growth in global population: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.